D&Democracy. Can Randomness Improve Democracy? more

Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy Can Randomness Improve Democracy? Pablo M. Garc´ Corzo ıa May 5, 2011 1 1 Grupo de F´ ısica Nuclear UCM D&Democracy 1 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Introduction WTF is this about Accidental Politicians: How Randomly Selected Legislators Can Improve Parliament Efficiency A. Pluchino, C. Garofalo, A. Rapisarda, S. Spagano and M. Caserta (7 Mar 2011). arXiv:1103.1224 D&Democracy 2 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Introduction WTF is this about Accidental Politicians: How Randomly Selected Legislators Can Improve Parliament Efficiency A. Pluchino, C. Garofalo, A. Rapisarda, S. Spagano and M. Caserta (7 Mar 2011). arXiv:1103.1224 The Peter Principle Revisited: A Computational Study Ig-Nobel 2010 winners for demonstrating mathematically that organizations would become more efficient if promotions were made at random. arXiv:0907.0455 D&Democracy 2 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Introduction WTF is this about Accidental Politicians: How Randomly Selected Legislators Can Improve Parliament Efficiency A. Pluchino, C. Garofalo, A. Rapisarda, S. Spagano and M. Caserta (7 Mar 2011). arXiv:1103.1224 The Peter Principle Revisited: A Computational Study Ig-Nobel 2010 winners for demonstrating mathematically that organizations would become more efficient if promotions were made at random. arXiv:0907.0455 The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity Their model is based on Carlo M. Cipolla’s work (1988) http://cantrip.org/stupidity.html D&Democracy 2 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Democracy != Elections In fact, the ancient Athenian democracy used sortition. Sortition systems are not strange at all: Athenian democracy, Doge of Venice, Signoria of Florence... Barcelona. In the 1430s, the city of Barcelona introduced a fairly complex lottery procedure for choosing its twelve principal councillors2 . 2 Random Justice: On Lotteries and Legal Decision-Making by Neil Duxbury D&Democracy 3 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Democracy != Elections In fact, the ancient Athenian democracy used sortition. Sortition systems are not strange at all: Athenian democracy, Doge of Venice, Signoria of Florence... Barcelona. Popular juries in Anglo-Saxon legal systems Danish Consensus Conferences Slashdot (weighted by karma) and many other virtual communities Departamento de optica UCM (2011) ´ Proposals for the Constitution of Iraq D&Democracy 3 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (i) First Law Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation. D&Democracy 4 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (i) First Law Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation. Second Law The probability that a certain person will be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person. D&Democracy 4 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (ii) Every human being can be classified by means of it’s decissions in four basic Categories. D&Democracy 5 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (ii) Tom takes an action and suffers a loss while producing a gain to Dick D&Democracy 5 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (ii) Tom takes an action by which he makes a gain while yielding a gain also to Dick D&Democracy 5 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (ii) Tom takes an action by which he makes a gain causing Dick a loss D&Democracy 5 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws Of Human Stupidity (ii) Third (and Golden) Law A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses. D&Democracy 5 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity (iii) Fourth Law Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake. D&Democracy 6 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity (iii) Fourth Law Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake. Fifth Law A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person. D&Democracy 6 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity (iii) Fourth Law Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake. Fifth Law A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person. Corollary to Fifth Law A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit. D&Democracy 6 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Agent Based Model The Parliament Model One Chamber Two Parties Circle of tolerance 500 members Acceptance window Independents represented as free points D&Democracy 7 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Dynamics Possible actions Proposing an act (not dependant on Parties) Act has proposer’s coordinates. Voting, which depends on: Membership Accept all proposals from my Party Vote using Party’s acceptance window Acceptance window Voting point Coordinate X will be expressed by a random number for each member D&Democracy 8 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Dynamics Statistics One legislature will consist in 1000 proposals. Parliament’s efficiency will be estimated as: Eff = where: Nacc is the number of accepted proposals Na is the total number of proposals y (am ) is the social gain of proposal am Nacc · 100 Na 1 Nacc Nacc y (am ) m=1 D&Democracy 9 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 10 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 10 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 10 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Results “Golden Rule” Their conclusions They find a rule for the optimal number or independents depending on parties proportions. D&Democracy 11 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion More randomness D&Democracy 12 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion More randomness OK, lets see... D&Democracy 12 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 13 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 13 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 13 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 13 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 13 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 13 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion What about a Spanish version Spain is different In Spain we have more than two parties. We will discuss this later, but there’s another difference. In Spain we people do have a different concept of supporting our friends. D&Democracy 14 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion What about a Spanish version Spain is different In Spain we have more than two parties. We will discuss this later, but there’s another difference. In Spain we people do have a different concept of supporting our friends. We prefer screwing the others. D&Democracy 14 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion What about a Spanish version Spain is different In Spain we have more than two parties. We will discuss this later, but there’s another difference. In Spain we people do have a different concept of supporting our friends. We prefer screwing the others. D&Democracy 14 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 15 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 15 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 15 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 15 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 15 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 15 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion What about a Multiobjective approach? D&Democracy 16 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion What about a Multiobjective approach? Maybe different people have different ideas about “social gain”. Maybe at least should be implemented for different parties. D&Democracy 16 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Discussion What about a Multiobjective approach? Maybe different people have different ideas about “social gain”. Maybe at least should be implemented for different parties. Try it by yourself, do you think I have nothing better than this to do? D&Democracy 16 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! Maybe “golden rule” will be different, but results are quite independent on tested deviations to the model. D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! Maybe “golden rule” will be different, but results are quite independent on tested deviations to the model. Stupid people are even more dangerous when they play polytics. D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! Maybe “golden rule” will be different, but results are quite independent on tested deviations to the model. Stupid people are even more dangerous when they play polytics. Where are we? Do small parties act as independent legislators in Spain? D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! Maybe “golden rule” will be different, but results are quite independent on tested deviations to the model. Stupid people are even more dangerous when they play polytics. Where are we? Do small parties act as independent legislators in Spain? If so, in Spain we have: GS: 169 GP: 153 Others: 28 Equilibrium 52-48 Golden rule says: D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! Maybe “golden rule” will be different, but results are quite independent on tested deviations to the model. Stupid people are even more dangerous when they play polytics. Where are we? Do small parties act as independent legislators in Spain? If so, in Spain we have: GS: 169 GP: 153 Others: 28 Equilibrium 52-48 Golden rule says: 28.18 independents. D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Independent legislators definitely do improve parliament’s efficicency. But parties also do! Maybe “golden rule” will be different, but results are quite independent on tested deviations to the model. Stupid people are even more dangerous when they play polytics. Where are we? Do small parties act as independent legislators in Spain? If so, in Spain we have: GS: 169 GP: 153 Others: 28 Equilibrium 52-48 Golden rule says: 28.18 independents. If Spain is so close to the Golden Rule, I can’t believe in it at all. Or small parties definitely are not independents. D&Democracy 17 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions Thank you for your kind attention, and remember... D&Democracy 18 / 18 Introduction Agent Based Model Dynamics Results Discussion Conclusions D&Democracy 18 / 18